Already, farm bankruptcies as of July exceed those over the full year of 2024. Many forces have buffeted American agriculture. U.S. News and World Report says low commodity prices, a persistent issue for years, now come with higher costs for inputs like fertilizer and equipment. Climate change has led to deeper, longer droughts and more flooding. Trade wars aren’t helping. Tariffs on other countries’ exports to the U.S. make those products more expensive to import. 

Retaliations from some countries are hitting farmers directly. China, once the main customer for U.S. soybeans, has been boycotting them. Moreover, Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs make U.S. soybeans 20% pricier than their South American competitors, according to the American Soybean Association. “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Kentucky. “Prices continue to drop, and at the same time farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment.”

Already, farm bankruptcies as of July exceed those over the full year of 2024. Many forces have buffeted American agriculture. U.S. News and World Report says low commodity prices, a persistent issue for years, now come with higher costs for inputs like fertilizer and equipment. Climate change has led to deeper, longer droughts and more flooding. Trade wars aren’t helping. Tariffs on other countries’ exports to the U.S. make those products more expensive to import. Retaliations from some countries are hitting farmers directly. China, once the main customer for U.S. soybeans, has been boycotting them. Moreover, Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs make U.S. soybeans 20% pricier than their South American competitors, according to the American Soybean Association. “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Kentucky. “Prices continue to drop, and at the same time farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment.”-NAFB

‘Trying to stick around’: U.S. farmers fight for survival

December corn closed down 3 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 6 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.

U.S. ag futures were lower for the most part Thursday as traders remain hesitant to overcommit to long positions ahead of the ramping up of U.S. harvest with large U.S. supply forecasts lingering in the back of traders' minds. Outside markets Thursday were mostly negative influence on agricultural interests with a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker energy markets. Equity markets continued to press higher into new records for both the S&amp;P and Dow, following the expected quarter point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The back-and-forth nature of the live cattle market trade continues. Wednesday afternoon the market closed lower, but throughout Thursday's trade the market was slightly stronger. It is interesting to note gains in the nearby contracts are moderate, but the furthest deferred contracts are all trading more than $1.50 higher. A single bid of $239 live is currently being offered in Kansas, but otherwise the cash market is silent for the meantime. Asking prices are firm in the South at $240-plus, but are still not established in the North. Packer interest should improve at any moment now.

And almost like clockwork, upon seeing the live cattle contracts trading stronger, the feeder cattle contracts also traded higher into Thursday's closing bell. It's likely that so long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher and close higher, the feeder cattle complex will be able to maintain its stronger position as well.

The lean hog complex&nbsp;traded modestly higher into Thursday's close, as traders continue to chop the contracts sideways but are pleased to see both cash prices and midday pork values slightly higher. Traders still seem unwilling to really push the market outside of its current trading range, but the slight uptick in fundamental support is helpful nonetheless.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/18142748/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 3 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 6 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.U.S. ag futures were lower for the most part Thursday as traders remain hesitant to overcommit to long positions ahead of the ramping up of U.S. harvest with large U.S. supply forecasts lingering in the back of traders' minds. Outside markets Thursday were mostly negative influence on agricultural interests with a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker energy markets. Equity markets continued to press higher into new records for both the S&amp;P and Dow, following the expected quarter point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.LIVE CATTLE:The back-and-forth nature of the live cattle market trade continues. Wednesday afternoon the market closed lower, but throughout Thursday's trade the market was slightly stronger. It is interesting to note gains in the nearby contracts are moderate, but the furthest deferred contracts are all trading more than $1.50 higher. A single bid of $239 live is currently being offered in Kansas, but otherwise the cash market is silent for the meantime. Asking prices are firm in the South at $240-plus, but are still not established in the North. Packer interest should improve at any moment now. And almost like clockwork, upon seeing the live cattle contracts trading stronger, the feeder cattle contracts also traded higher into Thursday's closing bell. It's likely that so long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher and close higher, the feeder cattle complex will be able to maintain its stronger position as well.The lean hog complex&nbsp;traded modestly higher into Thursday's close, as traders continue to chop the contracts sideways but are pleased to see both cash prices and midday pork values slightly higher. Traders still seem unwilling to really push the market outside of its current trading range, but the slight uptick in fundamental support is helpful nonetheless. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/18142748/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Commodity markets daily recap

Bovine bird flu is now a thing in Nebraska, according to the Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA). Reports show that the NDA and USDA in recent days identified a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in a dairy cattle herd in central Nebraska. The Animal Plant Health Inspection Service, working with the National Veterinary Services Laboratories confirmed a similar strain of the virus to what infected a herd in California. 

Cattle are at little risk of death with proper care, and the herd has been quarantined, officials said. Nebraska State Veterinarian Dr. Roger Dudley asked the state’s cattle producers to monitor their biosecurity protocols and contact a vet if they notice any symptoms. The state warned farmers to watch for decreases in hunger and milk production, along with clear nasal discharge, dehydration, fever, and lethargic behavior.

Bovine bird flu is now a thing in Nebraska, according to the Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA). Reports show that the NDA and USDA in recent days identified a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in a dairy cattle herd in central Nebraska. The Animal Plant Health Inspection Service, working with the National Veterinary Services Laboratories confirmed a similar strain of the virus to what infected a herd in California. Cattle are at little risk of death with proper care, and the herd has been quarantined, officials said. Nebraska State Veterinarian Dr. Roger Dudley asked the state’s cattle producers to monitor their biosecurity protocols and contact a vet if they notice any symptoms. The state warned farmers to watch for decreases in hunger and milk production, along with clear nasal discharge, dehydration, fever, and lethargic behavior.-NAFB

Bird flu seen in central Nebraska dairy cattle

Senators, Chuck Grassley, Tammy Baldwin, and Joni Ernst are reintroducing bipartisan legislation, Fertilizer Research Act would require the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to conduct a study on competition and trends in the fertilizer market and their subsequent impacts on price. Grassley is a lifelong family farmer and a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee. “Fertilizer is an essential tool our farmers rely on to maintain healthy soil and improve crop yields,” Ernst said. “I’m working hard to drive down fertilizer costs and make life more affordable for both farmers and consumers. 

By gaining a better understanding of the fertilizer industry, this research will provide the foundational knowledge needed to give farmers much needed clarity and certainty as harvest approaches.” The Fertilizer Research Act is endorsed by the National Corn Growers Association, the American Soybean Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Farmers Union, and many other organizations that support farmers and agriculture.

Senators, Chuck Grassley, Tammy Baldwin, and Joni Ernst are reintroducing bipartisan legislation, Fertilizer Research Act would require the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to conduct a study on competition and trends in the fertilizer market and their subsequent impacts on price. Grassley is a lifelong family farmer and a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee. “Fertilizer is an essential tool our farmers rely on to maintain healthy soil and improve crop yields,” Ernst said. “I’m working hard to drive down fertilizer costs and make life more affordable for both farmers and consumers. By gaining a better understanding of the fertilizer industry, this research will provide the foundational knowledge needed to give farmers much needed clarity and certainty as harvest approaches.” The Fertilizer Research Act is endorsed by the National Corn Growers Association, the American Soybean Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Farmers Union, and many other organizations that support farmers and agriculture.-NAFB

Grassley, Baldwin, Ernst reintroduce Fertilizer Research Act

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.26 3/4 and March corn was down 2 1/2 cents at $4.44 1/2. November soybeans closed down 6 cents at $10.43 3/4 and January soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents at $10.63 0/1. December KC wheat closed down 7 1/4 cents at $5.16 1/4, December Chicago wheat was down 5 3/4 cents at $5.28 1/4 and December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/2 cents at $5.74.

December corn slipped lower Wednesday after running into some strong selling above. Pressure came from the advancing harvest in some areas while heavy rain fell in parts of the Plains and western Midwest. Bean oil futures fell hard after the EPA put out a vague proposal to reallocate SREs late Tuesday and the uncertainty sent bean oil reeling. Soybeans were pressured by oil as well and wheat and corn fell to sizable losses on Wednesday. Wheat markets fell in unison Wednesday, pressured by heavy rain in the Plains and slowing demand. Pressure also came from the fact that Stats Canada raised wheat production by 700,000 metric tons (mt) to 36.6 mmt. That compares to USDA's 36-mmt estimate.

With no substantial support arising from anywhere, it comes as no surprise that the live cattle contracts were again trading lower -- but upon seeing the spot December contract growing closer and closer to the market's 40-day moving average, anxiousness has again become the underlying tone of the live cattle complex. The spot December contract is jumping a mere $0.20 above the market's 40-day moving average, which will be the threshold to watch and monitor through the balance of the week. Still no developments have surfaced in this week's fed cash cattle market, but asking prices are now noted at $242 in the South and remain unestablished in the North.

The feeder cattle complex also took the day hard as most of its contracts were trading $4.00 to $5.00 lower into Wednesday's closing bell. Although prices in the countryside remain at a historical high, we are seeing the typical pullback in prices in the countryside as more unweaned and unvaccinated calves are trading.

Without enough support developing in the market's fundamentals, the lean hog contracts were left with no other option but to trade slightly lower. Midday pork cutout values were up slightly, mainly because of the $1.88 gain in the loin and the $1.69 gain in the rib.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/17151902/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.26 3/4 and March corn was down 2 1/2 cents at $4.44 1/2. November soybeans closed down 6 cents at $10.43 3/4 and January soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents at $10.63 0/1. December KC wheat closed down 7 1/4 cents at $5.16 1/4, December Chicago wheat was down 5 3/4 cents at $5.28 1/4 and December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/2 cents at $5.74.December corn slipped lower Wednesday after running into some strong selling above. Pressure came from the advancing harvest in some areas while heavy rain fell in parts of the Plains and western Midwest. Bean oil futures fell hard after the EPA put out a vague proposal to reallocate SREs late Tuesday and the uncertainty sent bean oil reeling. Soybeans were pressured by oil as well and wheat and corn fell to sizable losses on Wednesday. Wheat markets fell in unison Wednesday, pressured by heavy rain in the Plains and slowing demand. Pressure also came from the fact that Stats Canada raised wheat production by 700,000 metric tons (mt) to 36.6 mmt. That compares to USDA's 36-mmt estimate.LIVESTOCK:With no substantial support arising from anywhere, it comes as no surprise that the live cattle contracts were again trading lower -- but upon seeing the spot December contract growing closer and closer to the market's 40-day moving average, anxiousness has again become the underlying tone of the live cattle complex. The spot December contract is jumping a mere $0.20 above the market's 40-day moving average, which will be the threshold to watch and monitor through the balance of the week. Still no developments have surfaced in this week's fed cash cattle market, but asking prices are now noted at $242 in the South and remain unestablished in the North.The feeder cattle complex also took the day hard as most of its contracts were trading $4.00 to $5.00 lower into Wednesday's closing bell. Although prices in the countryside remain at a historical high, we are seeing the typical pullback in prices in the countryside as more unweaned and unvaccinated calves are trading.Without enough support developing in the market's fundamentals, the lean hog contracts were left with no other option but to trade slightly lower. Midday pork cutout values were up slightly, mainly because of the $1.88 gain in the loin and the $1.69 gain in the rib.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/17151902/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Reports show that the U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today. “For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant ag professor. 

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds that while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes some of the economic gains. “The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not yet experienced the highest cattle prices.

Reports show that the U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today. “For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant ag professor. Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds that while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes some of the economic gains. “The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not yet experienced the highest cattle prices.-NAFB

Are we seeing signs of cattle herd rebuilding?

The Trump administration is evaluating whether to grant aid to American farmers this fall, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday. “We are working with our colleagues in Congress and closely monitoring markets daily to evaluate the amount of additional assistance that might be needed this fall,” Rollins said at a meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture in Rogers, Arkansas. 

Senate Chair John Boozman said that he “is engaging with his colleagues and the administration about the dire circumstances in rural America and the need to provide farmers resources to continue farming.” Boozman announced earlier this month that “everything is on the table” regarding assistance to farmers. Rollins’s comments come as Chinese buyers have yet to purchase soybeans from U.S. farmers, despite increased production yields relative to last year. China is utilizing soybeans as a bargaining chip in its ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration. 

The Trump administration is evaluating whether to grant aid to American farmers this fall, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday. “We are working with our colleagues in Congress and closely monitoring markets daily to evaluate the amount of additional assistance that might be needed this fall,” Rollins said at a meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture in Rogers, Arkansas. Senate Chair John Boozman said that he “is engaging with his colleagues and the administration about the dire circumstances in rural America and the need to provide farmers resources to continue farming.” Boozman announced earlier this month that “everything is on the table” regarding assistance to farmers. Rollins’s comments come as Chinese buyers have yet to purchase soybeans from U.S. farmers, despite increased production yields relative to last year. China is utilizing soybeans as a bargaining chip in its ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration. -NAFB

Trump administration considering economic aid for farmers

December corn closed down 6 3/4 cents and March corn was down 6 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 3 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 0 cents.

U.S. crop prices fell to begin the new week, led by corn which was met with fresh selling following an impressive double-digit surge Friday, which put December futures at a two and a half month high. Soybean and wheat futures were lower as well but in much quieter fashion as traders look past Friday's WASDE report and ahead to U.S. harvest reports which will begin to flow in over the next several weeks. Outside markets for Monday were mostly a positive influence on agricultural markets with a softer U.S. dollar, and firmer energy markets. Monday news was headlined by reports that the U.S. and China had reached a tentative agreement over the weekend regarding TikTok, with President Trump announcing he and President Xi of China are planning to speak on Friday, which the soybean market in particular will surely be watching closely.

It was a breath of fresh air to see the live cattle complex trade higher Monday, as last Friday the market closed just slightly below the 40-day moving average in the spot October contract, which caused some anguish heading into the weekend. Whenever the market closes below a major threshold like that, there's a strong chance traders could deem that a technical reason as to why the contracts should continue to trade lower. But, thankfully, that hasn't been the case as the live cattle contracts are traded mostly $4.00 higher into Monday's closing bell. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado. Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $375 to $378, which is $5.00 to $8.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $238 to $240, which is $2.00 to $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

The feeder cattle complex also rallied aggressively through Monday's session as the contracts saw an overabundance of support from traders. The uptick in the board could help feeder cattle prices in the countryside too, even though the fall run is fully underway.

The lean hog complex seems to be appraising the marketplace early this week to see if there's going to be enough support to allow the contracts to trade higher. Pork cutout values are up slightly, but given their mixed nature last week, it will be important that traders see stable support this week.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/15142000/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 6 3/4 cents and March corn was down 6 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 3 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 3 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 0 cents.U.S. crop prices fell to begin the new week, led by corn which was met with fresh selling following an impressive double-digit surge Friday, which put December futures at a two and a half month high. Soybean and wheat futures were lower as well but in much quieter fashion as traders look past Friday's WASDE report and ahead to U.S. harvest reports which will begin to flow in over the next several weeks. Outside markets for Monday were mostly a positive influence on agricultural markets with a softer U.S. dollar, and firmer energy markets. Monday news was headlined by reports that the U.S. and China had reached a tentative agreement over the weekend regarding TikTok, with President Trump announcing he and President Xi of China are planning to speak on Friday, which the soybean market in particular will surely be watching closely.LIVESTOCK:It was a breath of fresh air to see the live cattle complex trade higher Monday, as last Friday the market closed just slightly below the 40-day moving average in the spot October contract, which caused some anguish heading into the weekend. Whenever the market closes below a major threshold like that, there's a strong chance traders could deem that a technical reason as to why the contracts should continue to trade lower. But, thankfully, that hasn't been the case as the live cattle contracts are traded mostly $4.00 higher into Monday's closing bell. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado. Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $375 to $378, which is $5.00 to $8.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $238 to $240, which is $2.00 to $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. The feeder cattle complex also rallied aggressively through Monday's session as the contracts saw an overabundance of support from traders. The uptick in the board could help feeder cattle prices in the countryside too, even though the fall run is fully underway.The lean hog complex seems to be appraising the marketplace early this week to see if there's going to be enough support to allow the contracts to trade higher. Pork cutout values are up slightly, but given their mixed nature last week, it will be important that traders see stable support this week.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/15142000/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Fertilizer prices aren’t at historic highs, but relative to last year’s prices and the current prices for crop commodities, they are elevated. According to data from USDA and analysis by University of Illinois Farmdoc, fertilizer prices in are 6% to 20% higher than early fall 2024. High yields lead to high nutrient removal rates, but next year, nutrient replacement and feeding a new crop will come at a higher cost. 

Pro Farmer reports the price trends weigh heavier on farmers who are starting next year’s crop with what could be a lower nutrient baseline. Karl Wyant, Nutrien’s director of agronomy says, “We have two realities here. We have the reality of economics, and we have the reality that crops have a core need for nutrients.” Wyant says therein lies the balance for farmers — keep soils productive while considering the cost to do so. His best advice — root your decision in data.

Fertilizer prices aren’t at historic highs, but relative to last year’s prices and the current prices for crop commodities, they are elevated. According to data from USDA and analysis by University of Illinois Farmdoc, fertilizer prices in are 6% to 20% higher than early fall 2024. High yields lead to high nutrient removal rates, but next year, nutrient replacement and feeding a new crop will come at a higher cost. Pro Farmer reports the price trends weigh heavier on farmers who are starting next year’s crop with what could be a lower nutrient baseline. Karl Wyant, Nutrien’s director of agronomy says, “We have two realities here. We have the reality of economics, and we have the reality that crops have a core need for nutrients.” Wyant says therein lies the balance for farmers — keep soils productive while considering the cost to do so. His best advice — root your decision in data.-NAFB

Fertilizer decisions for 2026 crop will be a balancing act

Net farm income in the United States is projected to reach $177 billion in 2025, a sharp increase from $128 billion in 2024. This is according to the latest update of the annual U.S. farm income and consumer food price report by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.

Record cattle prices and large one-time government payments have boosted 2025 income but declines in crop prices and projected reductions in future government support raise concerns about the outlook for 2026. The report incorporates data available in August, including the USDA crop production estimates and economic forecasts from S&amp;P Global. It also accounts for modifications in key farm programs and tax credits related to biofuel production that were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into law in July.

By: NATHAN STUEDLENet farm income in the United States is projected to reach $177 billion in 2025, a sharp increase from $128 billion in 2024. This is according to the latest update of the annual U.S. farm income and consumer food price report by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.Record cattle prices and large one-time government payments have boosted 2025 income but declines in crop prices and projected reductions in future government support raise concerns about the outlook for 2026. The report incorporates data available in August, including the USDA crop production estimates and economic forecasts from S&amp;P Global. It also accounts for modifications in key farm programs and tax credits related to biofuel production that were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed into law in July.

Mizzou economists: 2025 farm income boosted by high cattle prices and one-time payments

December corn closed up 10 1/4 cents and March corn was up 10 cents. November soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 12 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.

December corn closed up 12 cents and March corn was up 10 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 19 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 19 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 5 3/4 cents.

The feature of Friday's session was the release of USDA's September WASDE and Crop Production reports, offering their estimates of how fall crops in the U.S. will turn out as well as a look into world grain supplies and usage. For the most part, I would classify the report as neutral, as in a way it didn't offer traders a whole lot that wasn't already expected or known. As is the case with many crop reports, there were bearish and bullish aspects that could be found within the fine details of Friday's numbers, some of which are discussed in more detail below. As for outside markets, it was mostly a quiet session with little news, but a weak consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan weighed on investors' minds. Meanwhile, energy markets were higher into the weekend, but well off their daily highs with a mixed tone overall.

The live cattle contracts were back to trading lower as the market did not to see the support it needs to continue to drive prices higher. But with cash prices trending lower this week, and boxed beef prices seasonally softening as well, it's not bewildering to see the markets weaker again. It will be interesting to see if traders are able to keep the spot October contract above the market's 40-day moving average. If the market happens to close below that price point, more downward pressure could come.

Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets for 2025. Beef production for 2025 is expected to decline by 100 million pounds as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds are expected to continue to decline through the year's end. The projected quarterly steer prices were bullish for the market as steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $240 ($2.00 higher from last month), steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $244 (up $4.00), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $246 (up $5.00 from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $248 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2025 increased by 90 million pounds as the demand for lean processing beef is still high, but beef exports for 2025 decreased by 40 million pounds amid thin supplies and historically high prices.

The feeder cattle complex was again trading lower as the market struggles to find stable support in the futures complex. Not helping matters either is the fact that fed cash cattle prices are trading lower and boxed beef prices are softer, which has put a lower waning attitude across all of the marketplace.

The lean hog complex struggled to find upward momentum, as the market ran past resistance on Thursday but didn't finding enough support in the market's sphere today to push any higher. One may point to the uptick in pork cutout values on today's midday report as a reason why the hog contracts should be higher, but traders seem to find the technical resistance as more of a limiting factor.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/12145521/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 10 1/4 cents and March corn was up 10 cents. November soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 12 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.For the week:December corn closed up 12 cents and March corn was up 10 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 19 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 19 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 5 3/4 cents.The feature of Friday's session was the release of USDA's September WASDE and Crop Production reports, offering their estimates of how fall crops in the U.S. will turn out as well as a look into world grain supplies and usage. For the most part, I would classify the report as neutral, as in a way it didn't offer traders a whole lot that wasn't already expected or known. As is the case with many crop reports, there were bearish and bullish aspects that could be found within the fine details of Friday's numbers, some of which are discussed in more detail below. As for outside markets, it was mostly a quiet session with little news, but a weak consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan weighed on investors' minds. Meanwhile, energy markets were higher into the weekend, but well off their daily highs with a mixed tone overall.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle contracts were back to trading lower as the market did not to see the support it needs to continue to drive prices higher. But with cash prices trending lower this week, and boxed beef prices seasonally softening as well, it's not bewildering to see the markets weaker again. It will be interesting to see if traders are able to keep the spot October contract above the market's 40-day moving average. If the market happens to close below that price point, more downward pressure could come.Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets for 2025. Beef production for 2025 is expected to decline by 100 million pounds as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds are expected to continue to decline through the year's end. The projected quarterly steer prices were bullish for the market as steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $240 ($2.00 higher from last month), steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $244 (up $4.00), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $246 (up $5.00 from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $248 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2025 increased by 90 million pounds as the demand for lean processing beef is still high, but beef exports for 2025 decreased by 40 million pounds amid thin supplies and historically high prices.The feeder cattle complex was again trading lower as the market struggles to find stable support in the futures complex. Not helping matters either is the fact that fed cash cattle prices are trading lower and boxed beef prices are softer, which has put a lower waning attitude across all of the marketplace.The lean hog complex struggled to find upward momentum, as the market ran past resistance on Thursday but didn't finding enough support in the market's sphere today to push any higher. One may point to the uptick in pork cutout values on today's midday report as a reason why the hog contracts should be higher, but traders seem to find the technical resistance as more of a limiting factor.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/12145521/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The Bureau of Land Management has begun the process of rolling back the Biden Administration’s rule allowing conservation leases on its land. The agency on Wednesday released a proposal to rescind the 2024 Public Lands Rule, which aimed to put conservation uses of land on equal footing with grazing, energy production, mining, and recreation. 

The Bureau of Land Management has begun the process of rolling back the Biden Administration’s rule allowing conservation leases on its land. The agency on Wednesday released a proposal to rescind the 2024 Public Lands Rule, which aimed to put conservation uses of land on equal footing with grazing, energy production, mining, and recreation.

Bureau of Land Management plans to scrap conservation leasing rule

Farm Equipment manufacturers say they are struggling under the high tariffs set by President Trump. Case IH’s Kurt Coffey, who serves as the company's vice president of its North America division, says the executive team he is on meets daily to unpack global trade developments. Case IH is in a good position overall, he says, with 80% to 90% of its machines produced in one of four U.S. production facilities, and 95% of its machinery base material, steel, is sourced domestically. 

We’ve continued to focus on how we make sure our customers have what they need as they’re going to harvest. German-based manufacturer Claas is a different story. Eighty percent of its row crop machinery portfolio is built in Europe and shipped to dealer lots in the U.S. Eric Raby, senior vice president of Claas, says, “We’ve absorbed a lot, as well. We’re not passing all of it to the customer.”

Farm Equipment manufacturers say they are struggling under the high tariffs set by President Trump. Case IH’s Kurt Coffey, who serves as the company's vice president of its North America division, says the executive team he is on meets daily to unpack global trade developments. Case IH is in a good position overall, he says, with 80% to 90% of its machines produced in one of four U.S. production facilities, and 95% of its machinery base material, steel, is sourced domestically. We’ve continued to focus on how we make sure our customers have what they need as they’re going to harvest. German-based manufacturer Claas is a different story. Eighty percent of its row crop machinery portfolio is built in Europe and shipped to dealer lots in the U.S. Eric Raby, senior vice president of Claas, says, “We’ve absorbed a lot, as well. We’re not passing all of it to the customer.”-NAFB

What farm equipment manufacturers are saying about 50% steel and aluminum tariffs

December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and March corn was up 2 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 8 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 7 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 3 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 6 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 2 cents.

Grain markets traded higher on Thursday as traders continue to keep corn and soybean prices within their weekly ranges ahead of USDA's September WASDE report due out Friday at 11 a.m. CDT. The soybean market in particular led the charge higher on Thursday, erasing the results of the previous two lower sessions. Outside markets on Thursday were mixed with softer energy markets, but equities surging to new records. Consumer Price Index data for August painted a picture of much more concerning inflation as compared to the PPI released on Wednesday. Meanwhile, jobless claims were a four-year high on Thursday, which could potentially set up a dichotomy when the Federal Reserve meets next week to decide on interest rates. I'd also like to point out in Wednesday's comment, I mistakenly pointed to the PPI data as the Fed's "preferred inflation gauge," which is actually the Personal Consumption data due out later this month, not the PPI data as I had mistakenly alluded to.

Again today, the live cattle complex stepped forward and traded higher as traders seem to agree that the market has seen enough downward pressure for the time being. Thankfully, again today we see that trades moved the contracts away from the market's 40-day moving average, which thankfully is happening because a close below that threshold would likely signal more downward pressure. Although there are again bids beginning to renew in the countryside, no new trade has developed. So far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded from $375 to $378, which is $5.00 to $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left to trade remain firm at $243 in the South and $378 plus in the North.

Thankfully, the feeder cattle complex has now also found support as all of its contracts traded well over $1.00 higher. It's the market's nearby contracts that traded above $2.00 higher, while most of the deferred contracts are just trading $1.00 to $1.70 higher into Thursday's closing bell, but luckily, the gloomy pressure that rested above the market on Tuesday and Wednesday has seemed to fade away.

It's been noteworthy day for the lean hog complex as the market has found enough support to gingerly break above its resistance at $97.00 in the spot October contract. But surprisingly, this seems to be a move being made by traders alone, as the market isn't lending much fundamental support, the day's export report wasn't that fruitful and midday pork cutout values were lower.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/11144407/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and March corn was up 2 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 8 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 7 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 3 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 6 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 2 cents.Grain markets traded higher on Thursday as traders continue to keep corn and soybean prices within their weekly ranges ahead of USDA's September WASDE report due out Friday at 11 a.m. CDT. The soybean market in particular led the charge higher on Thursday, erasing the results of the previous two lower sessions. Outside markets on Thursday were mixed with softer energy markets, but equities surging to new records. Consumer Price Index data for August painted a picture of much more concerning inflation as compared to the PPI released on Wednesday. Meanwhile, jobless claims were a four-year high on Thursday, which could potentially set up a dichotomy when the Federal Reserve meets next week to decide on interest rates. I'd also like to point out in Wednesday's comment, I mistakenly pointed to the PPI data as the Fed's "preferred inflation gauge," which is actually the Personal Consumption data due out later this month, not the PPI data as I had mistakenly alluded to.LIVESTOCK:Again today, the live cattle complex stepped forward and traded higher as traders seem to agree that the market has seen enough downward pressure for the time being. Thankfully, again today we see that trades moved the contracts away from the market's 40-day moving average, which thankfully is happening because a close below that threshold would likely signal more downward pressure. Although there are again bids beginning to renew in the countryside, no new trade has developed. So far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded from $375 to $378, which is $5.00 to $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left to trade remain firm at $243 in the South and $378 plus in the North.Thankfully, the feeder cattle complex has now also found support as all of its contracts traded well over $1.00 higher. It's the market's nearby contracts that traded above $2.00 higher, while most of the deferred contracts are just trading $1.00 to $1.70 higher into Thursday's closing bell, but luckily, the gloomy pressure that rested above the market on Tuesday and Wednesday has seemed to fade away. It's been noteworthy day for the lean hog complex as the market has found enough support to gingerly break above its resistance at $97.00 in the spot October contract. But surprisingly, this seems to be a move being made by traders alone, as the market isn't lending much fundamental support, the day's export report wasn't that fruitful and midday pork cutout values were lower.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/11144407/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. 

Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024. 

The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024. -NAFB

USDA says farm sector profits to grow in 2025

As farmers prepare to harvest what may be a record-large soybean crop, their largest export customer has yet to make a buy. Without a deal with China, North Dakota farmers may not get a bid for their soybeans. According to North Dakota Soybean Council Chair Jim Thompson, the local cash market is pushing growers to store their beans. 

North Dakota Soybean Growers Association President Justin Sherlock says the trade dispute with China needs to end. “Maybe it’s getting an interim trade deal with a country like China so we have somewhere to just physically move and sell those soybeans,” said Sherlock. He said farmers want the export markets restored first. “We just need to get rid of the crop right now, then we can figure out where we’re at financially as we go into the winter months and loan renewal season.”

As farmers prepare to harvest what may be a record-large soybean crop, their largest export customer has yet to make a buy. Without a deal with China, North Dakota farmers may not get a bid for their soybeans. According to North Dakota Soybean Council Chair Jim Thompson, the local cash market is pushing growers to store their beans. North Dakota Soybean Growers Association President Justin Sherlock says the trade dispute with China needs to end. “Maybe it’s getting an interim trade deal with a country like China so we have somewhere to just physically move and sell those soybeans,” said Sherlock. He said farmers want the export markets restored first. “We just need to get rid of the crop right now, then we can figure out where we’re at financially as we go into the winter months and loan renewal season.”-NAFB

Soybean leaders see export window narrowing with China

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 5 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 5 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents.

Ag futures and row crops specifically were generally on the lower side on Wednesday, but still within their recent trading ranges as traders aren't really looking to commit to big position swings ahead of USDA insight into the markets on Friday. Outside markets were mixed with energy futures higher after a fresh wave of geopolitical uncertainty after Poland reportedly shot down Russian drones in their airspace Tuesday night. Meanwhile, stock indices were mixed with the S&amp;P 500 surging to a new record amid a cool reading of the PPI Index on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge for guiding rate decisions, leaving less doubt in investors' minds that the Fed will cut rates in their meeting next week.

The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded softly higher into Wednesday's closing bell as the market is recovering some position lost from Tuesday's meltdown. The spot October contract continues to trade slightly above the market's 40-day moving average ($229.74), which will be a threshold to continue to monitor. If traders let the contracts fall below that point, a downward trend will likely continue. A few bids are currently on the table at $236 in Kansas and $235 live and $375 dressed in Nebraska, but no new sales have been reported following Tuesday's business. On Tuesday afternoon, there was a thin movement in the North at $378, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, but there weren't enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has been set for the week. Asking prices in the South are firm at $243 and in the North at $380.

The feeder cattle complex&nbsp;did not recover as much as the live cattle contracts, as only its nearby contracts traded higher while the deferred months continued to trade moderately lower. It seems as though Tuesday's sharp descent took the air out of the feeder cattle contracts, which is why they were slower to recover today.

The lean hog complex was chopping merely sideways as the market traders want to support the complex, but neither do they believe that they possess enough support to really push the contracts beyond the market's resistance. It is helpful that again this morning, the carcass price was higher, which is mainly because of the ham's $3.45 jump, and the belly's $2.71 gain.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/10150329/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 5 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 5 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents.Ag futures and row crops specifically were generally on the lower side on Wednesday, but still within their recent trading ranges as traders aren't really looking to commit to big position swings ahead of USDA insight into the markets on Friday. Outside markets were mixed with energy futures higher after a fresh wave of geopolitical uncertainty after Poland reportedly shot down Russian drones in their airspace Tuesday night. Meanwhile, stock indices were mixed with the S&amp;P 500 surging to a new record amid a cool reading of the PPI Index on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge for guiding rate decisions, leaving less doubt in investors' minds that the Fed will cut rates in their meeting next week.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded softly higher into Wednesday's closing bell as the market is recovering some position lost from Tuesday's meltdown. The spot October contract continues to trade slightly above the market's 40-day moving average ($229.74), which will be a threshold to continue to monitor. If traders let the contracts fall below that point, a downward trend will likely continue. A few bids are currently on the table at $236 in Kansas and $235 live and $375 dressed in Nebraska, but no new sales have been reported following Tuesday's business. On Tuesday afternoon, there was a thin movement in the North at $378, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, but there weren't enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has been set for the week. Asking prices in the South are firm at $243 and in the North at $380.The feeder cattle complex&nbsp;did not recover as much as the live cattle contracts, as only its nearby contracts traded higher while the deferred months continued to trade moderately lower. It seems as though Tuesday's sharp descent took the air out of the feeder cattle contracts, which is why they were slower to recover today.The lean hog complex was chopping merely sideways as the market traders want to support the complex, but neither do they believe that they possess enough support to really push the contracts beyond the market's resistance. It is helpful that again this morning, the carcass price was higher, which is mainly because of the ham's $3.45 jump, and the belly's $2.71 gain.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/10150329/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenge facing President Donald Trump as he vows to reverse the trend. Agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month. According to data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture That pushed the sector’s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year. 

The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit. That further cements a shift that has been building since the president’s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer. 

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenge facing President Donald Trump as he vows to reverse the trend. Agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month. According to data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture That pushed the sector’s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year. The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit. That further cements a shift that has been building since the president’s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer. -NAFB

Ag trade deficit hit another record high in July

China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages as a protracted trade war with the U.S. — its second-largest supplier — drags on. Reports show that China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, purchased 12.3 million metric tons in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before U.S. supplies begin to dominate the global market. China has traditionally sourced a large share of its soybean imports from the US, but ongoing trade tensions have pushed it to favor Brazil. 

The recent purchases reflect a strategic move to reduce reliance on US shipments ahead of the export season that is expected to peak in the coming months. Abundant imports, mainly from Brazil, have left Chinese crushers better prepared for a winter possibly without US soybeans. China’s stockpiles of imported soybeans totaled about 6.8 million tons as of last Friday, nearly the highest amount since March.

China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages as a protracted trade war with the U.S. — its second-largest supplier — drags on. Reports show that China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, purchased 12.3 million metric tons in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before U.S. supplies begin to dominate the global market. China has traditionally sourced a large share of its soybean imports from the US, but ongoing trade tensions have pushed it to favor Brazil. The recent purchases reflect a strategic move to reduce reliance on US shipments ahead of the export season that is expected to peak in the coming months. Abundant imports, mainly from Brazil, have left Chinese crushers better prepared for a winter possibly without US soybeans. China’s stockpiles of imported soybeans totaled about 6.8 million tons as of last Friday, nearly the highest amount since March.-NAFB

China soybean imports at record high in August, but not from U.S.

December corn closed down 2 cents and March corn was down 2 cents. November soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 7 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.

Row crop futures were lower for the most part across the board on Tuesday, correcting from Monday's positive action as traders are really just sitting on their hands currently, waiting for USDA clues on Friday in terms of what to expect for the impending U.S. corn and soy harvests. Corn and soybean conditions fell again week over week, but it is somewhat normal to see some degree of decline ahead of harvest, and the cuts were not as large as some were expecting, which dampened bullish motivation somewhat for Tuesday. Outside markets on Tuesday were mixed and mostly quiet as well, with most of the attention going to the revisions lower in U.S. job creation stretching back to April 2024 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which in turn has investors waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will react in their meeting next week.

Tuesday was quite the tumultuous ride for the live cattle complex. At the day's initial start, the market was trading slightly lower, but as the morning progressed, traders exacerbated the day's decline to be one that was sharp and painful to watch, as most of the live cattle contracts traded $4.00 to $6.00 lower. And why, you ask? More than anything, today's move seemed to be triggered by technical nervousness, as traders continue to worry about the market's position and know that fundamental support could be slightly weaker for the next little while, as cash prices could be lower and seasonally boxed beef prices could decline as well. No developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market and aren't expected to until Wednesday or later this week.

Did you think Monday afternoon that come Tuesday, the feeder cattle complex would be trading limit lower in most of its contracts? I hate to speculate, but I think it's safe to say that most of us didn't foresee the cattle complex toppling down so aggressively, given that from a fundamental perspective, feeder cattle demand is incredible -- the CME feeder cattle index closed at $367.03 Monday afternoon. But what's important to keep in perspective here is that even though it's frustrating, and even though so many factors say that today's actions simply shouldn't be, traders don't have to obey sound logic, and not every move aligns with the reality of the countryside's fundamentals.

While the cattle complex fell flat on its face, the lean hog complex saw most of its contracts drift slightly lower, but not to the severe degree in which the cattle contracts were trading. More than anything, the slight pullback in the hog sector seems to be because traders are noting resistance pressure, and midday pork cutout values were lower, too.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/09140923/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 2 cents and March corn was down 2 cents. November soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 7 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.Row crop futures were lower for the most part across the board on Tuesday, correcting from Monday's positive action as traders are really just sitting on their hands currently, waiting for USDA clues on Friday in terms of what to expect for the impending U.S. corn and soy harvests. Corn and soybean conditions fell again week over week, but it is somewhat normal to see some degree of decline ahead of harvest, and the cuts were not as large as some were expecting, which dampened bullish motivation somewhat for Tuesday. Outside markets on Tuesday were mixed and mostly quiet as well, with most of the attention going to the revisions lower in U.S. job creation stretching back to April 2024 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which in turn has investors waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will react in their meeting next week.LIVESTOCK:Tuesday was quite the tumultuous ride for the live cattle complex. At the day's initial start, the market was trading slightly lower, but as the morning progressed, traders exacerbated the day's decline to be one that was sharp and painful to watch, as most of the live cattle contracts traded $4.00 to $6.00 lower. And why, you ask? More than anything, today's move seemed to be triggered by technical nervousness, as traders continue to worry about the market's position and know that fundamental support could be slightly weaker for the next little while, as cash prices could be lower and seasonally boxed beef prices could decline as well. No developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market and aren't expected to until Wednesday or later this week.Did you think Monday afternoon that come Tuesday, the feeder cattle complex would be trading limit lower in most of its contracts? I hate to speculate, but I think it's safe to say that most of us didn't foresee the cattle complex toppling down so aggressively, given that from a fundamental perspective, feeder cattle demand is incredible -- the CME feeder cattle index closed at $367.03 Monday afternoon. But what's important to keep in perspective here is that even though it's frustrating, and even though so many factors say that today's actions simply shouldn't be, traders don't have to obey sound logic, and not every move aligns with the reality of the countryside's fundamentals. While the cattle complex fell flat on its face, the lean hog complex saw most of its contracts drift slightly lower, but not to the severe degree in which the cattle contracts were trading. More than anything, the slight pullback in the hog sector seems to be because traders are noting resistance pressure, and midday pork cutout values were lower, too. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/09140923/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The California Legislature has approved a bill to authorize the immediate sale of E15, a gasoline blend with 15% ethanol, but the measure still needs the signature of Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose administration signaled strong opposition to advancing E15 ahead of a California Air Resources Board regulatory review. In testimony at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing last month on Assembly Bill 30, California Department of Finance officials labeled the bill as duplicative and unnecessary. 

A budget official pointed to the $2.3 million and 10 positions the Legislature approved this year for CARB to implement the new E15 standards, resources that will not be available until the agency completes its review. The administration’s opposition to AB 30 centers on new costs to the California Department of Food and Agriculture for enforcing petroleum product quality standards. Increasing fuel fees would run counter to the administration’s priority to lower gas prices.

The California Legislature has approved a bill to authorize the immediate sale of E15, a gasoline blend with 15% ethanol, but the measure still needs the signature of Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose administration signaled strong opposition to advancing E15 ahead of a California Air Resources Board regulatory review. In testimony at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing last month on Assembly Bill 30, California Department of Finance officials labeled the bill as duplicative and unnecessary. A budget official pointed to the $2.3 million and 10 positions the Legislature approved this year for CARB to implement the new E15 standards, resources that will not be available until the agency completes its review. The administration’s opposition to AB 30 centers on new costs to the California Department of Food and Agriculture for enforcing petroleum product quality standards. Increasing fuel fees would run counter to the administration’s priority to lower gas prices.-NAFB

California E15 fate now in hands of Newsom, who opposed bill

On Monday the U.S. House passed a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program. The bipartisan United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act includes some updates to the existing law, which expires September 30th, that are aimed in part at promoting new technology.

 The bill would require USDA to prioritize the adoption of improved grain grading technology to enable the efficient, accurate, and consistent grading of grain, and the legislation would exempt equipment and technology costs from a 30% cap on administrative and supervisory expenses that may be incurred under the law. The cap is intended to limit the overall cost of the program. The president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association, Mike Seyfert, calls the legislation “a must-pass bill for the entire grain value chain.”

On Monday the U.S. House passed a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program. The bipartisan United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act includes some updates to the existing law, which expires September 30th, that are aimed in part at promoting new technology. The bill would require USDA to prioritize the adoption of improved grain grading technology to enable the efficient, accurate, and consistent grading of grain, and the legislation would exempt equipment and technology costs from a 30% cap on administrative and supervisory expenses that may be incurred under the law. The cap is intended to limit the overall cost of the program. The president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association, Mike Seyfert, calls the legislation “a must-pass bill for the entire grain value chain.”-NAFB

House passes grain inspection extension

December corn closed down 1 3/4 cents and March corn was down 1 cent. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 6 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 cent, December Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/4 cents.

December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents and March corn was down 1 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 27 cents. December KC wheat closed down 11 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 17 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 14 cents.

Agricultural markets were mostly calm Friday, and for the most part followed weekly trends into the close, featuring reversals off early session gains. Corn futures looked to be heading for a third positive session out of four tries this week before bears regained control by the last hour of trade. Meanwhile, soybean prices fell again following Thursday's impressive afternoon rally. Wheat markets remained limited in terms of upward momentum but were also able to stabilize following Thursday's ugly morning trade which sent prices to new lows. Outside markets to close the week were mostly a negative influence on agriculture, with another round of sluggish jobs data Friday morning sending equities lower and also weighing on energy markets. Also weighing on energies was Thursday's EIA inventory report which showed U.S. crude oil stocks higher week-over-week and year-over-year, as well as the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. Treasury yields inched higher to close the week with the apparent slowing of the labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their meeting later this month.

The live cattle complex continued to etch lower and lower as the market isn't seeing the fundamental support it needs to convince traders that the market's direction should change. Following the trade that developed in the cash market on Thursday, no new cash cattle trade has surfaced thus far, and it's looking like the bulk of this week's business could be done with. So far this week Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $242 to $243, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $383, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

And again today, the feeder cattle complex was following in the same direction as that of the live cattle market, as even though demand in the countryside remains historic, traders are waving their white flag for the time being and are fixated on working the contracts lower. As time moves closer and closer to the end of September/early October, it will be interesting to see the sheer volume of calves traded at sale barns as more cattle were moved earlier this year.

The momentum that's run with the lean hog complex for the vast majority of the week continued to sustain through Friday's session as the contracts kept trading higher. It is helpful that today, pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the $5.07 increase in the picnic and the $4.13 jump in the loin.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/05141849/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 1 3/4 cents and March corn was down 1 cent. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 6 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 cent, December Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/4 cents.For the week:December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents and March corn was down 1 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 27 cents. December KC wheat closed down 11 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 17 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 14 cents.Agricultural markets were mostly calm Friday, and for the most part followed weekly trends into the close, featuring reversals off early session gains. Corn futures looked to be heading for a third positive session out of four tries this week before bears regained control by the last hour of trade. Meanwhile, soybean prices fell again following Thursday's impressive afternoon rally. Wheat markets remained limited in terms of upward momentum but were also able to stabilize following Thursday's ugly morning trade which sent prices to new lows. Outside markets to close the week were mostly a negative influence on agriculture, with another round of sluggish jobs data Friday morning sending equities lower and also weighing on energy markets. Also weighing on energies was Thursday's EIA inventory report which showed U.S. crude oil stocks higher week-over-week and year-over-year, as well as the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. Treasury yields inched higher to close the week with the apparent slowing of the labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their meeting later this month.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex continued to etch lower and lower as the market isn't seeing the fundamental support it needs to convince traders that the market's direction should change. Following the trade that developed in the cash market on Thursday, no new cash cattle trade has surfaced thus far, and it's looking like the bulk of this week's business could be done with. So far this week Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $242 to $243, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $383, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. And again today, the feeder cattle complex was following in the same direction as that of the live cattle market, as even though demand in the countryside remains historic, traders are waving their white flag for the time being and are fixated on working the contracts lower. As time moves closer and closer to the end of September/early October, it will be interesting to see the sheer volume of calves traded at sale barns as more cattle were moved earlier this year.The momentum that's run with the lean hog complex for the vast majority of the week continued to sustain through Friday's session as the contracts kept trading higher. It is helpful that today, pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the $5.07 increase in the picnic and the $4.13 jump in the loin.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/05141849/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded the California Senate’s passing of a bill that would allow the sale of E15, saying the state is much closer to cleaner fuel use. The Association said the bill moves on to the governor’s desk for approval. Last year, Governor Gavin Newsom said ethanol blends have massive potential and will lower gas prices while keeping the air clean. 

Researchers at the University of California-Berkeley and the U.S. Naval Academy said in a report that California consumers may see up to $2.7 billion in savings every year by having E15 available. California is the only state that doesn’t allow sales of the fuel blend. The analysis also finds that a unit increase in octane level results in a value premium of about 11 cents per gallon. California’s transition from E10 to E15 could save about 13 cents per gallon on average due to the lower carbon intensity of E15.&nbsp;

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded the California Senate’s passing of a bill that would allow the sale of E15, saying the state is much closer to cleaner fuel use. The Association said the bill moves on to the governor’s desk for approval. Last year, Governor Gavin Newsom said ethanol blends have massive potential and will lower gas prices while keeping the air clean. Researchers at the University of California-Berkeley and the U.S. Naval Academy said in a report that California consumers may see up to $2.7 billion in savings every year by having E15 available. California is the only state that doesn’t allow sales of the fuel blend. The analysis also finds that a unit increase in octane level results in a value premium of about 11 cents per gallon. California’s transition from E10 to E15 could save about 13 cents per gallon on average due to the lower carbon intensity of E15.&nbsp;-NAFB

California senate passes E15 bill

Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024.&nbsp;

The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024.&nbsp;-NAFB