Grains:
As typical of an August WASDE, there was no shortage of talking points for Wednesday's release. First and foremost, the 1.4 million increase to planted acreage from 95.3 million to 96.7 million acres (ma). If this proves to be the final acreage, it will be the second largest upward revision from the June acreage survey over the past 32 years behind only last year's 3.6 million acres. This dampened the expected yield cut, which landed at 2.3 bushels per acre (bpa) lower than the July forecast and a national average of 180.7 bpa. Total production is now forecasted to be 16.013 billion bushels (bb), up 13 million bushels (mb) from July and the second largest U.S. crop on record.
The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.17 at 100.0. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 40.0 points at 53,920.0. December gold is up $35.70 at $4,476.80, September silver is up $0.81 at $65.74 and September copper is down $0.020. September crude oil is down $0.08 at $83.12, September ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0420, September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0098 and September natural gas is up $0.026.
CORN:
September corn closed up 20 1/4 cents and December corn was up 20 1/4 cents. September soybeans closed up 13 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 14 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 21 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 22 1/2 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 13 3/4 cents.
September corn futures traded 20 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday, closing at $4.57. December futures were up 20 1/4 cents to $4.80 3/4. The corn market was lifted by bullish USDA adjustments with 2026-27 ending stocks falling despite an increased production outlook as the result of a surprisingly large increase in acreage. Technically speaking, December futures surged through the 20-day and 100-day averages near $4.70 and may look to challenge July weather rally highs near $4.90 in the coming days.
Demand changes leaned bullish, however, with 2025-26 exports raised by 75 million bushels (mb) which in turn cuts ending stocks to under 2 bb at 1.945 bb. New-crop 2026-27 exports were also increased by 75 mb. As a result of lower carry-in and higher export demand, 2026-27 ending stocks are seen as 137 mb lower than in July, and a 10% stocks-to-use ratio beginning to lean into historically bullish territory in terms of typical prices associated with such a level.
The world corn market on Wednesday was firm, with European prices higher as well. USDA cut European production another 3.5 million metric tons (mmt) in Wednesday's report, while increasing imports by 1 mmt. Ukraine, in the meanwhile, saw exports reduced but by only 1 mmt, which would be conservative to what may be possible should the escalating situation in the Black Sea remain unresolved. A bullish development was also seen in Brazil's numbers, where USDA increased 2026 Brazilian production by 2 mmt but cut exports by 1 mmt, signaling increased domestic demand for corn in Brazil. In perhaps a bit of bearish news, despite multi-year lows in corn stocks, USDA sees less optimism for China's corn demand on the international market, cutting both old- and new-crop imports by 1 mmt each.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.09. Wednesday's futures close and Tuesday's national average corn basis of 27 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.30.
SOYBEANS:
September soybean futures rose 13 3/4 cents on Wednesday, closing at $11.65 1/4. November futures were up 14 1/2 cents to $11.83 1/4. Soybean futures shot higher at 11 a.m. CDT on release of the USDA reports before quickly fading. Despite a less outwardly bullish report relative to corn, soybeans eventually climbed slightly by the close, supported by a general bullish attitude for Wednesday across crop futures but also still plenty of bullish arguments to be made for future soybean fundamentals. November soybeans reclaimed Tuesday's lost ground above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages ($11.72 to $11.75), with the 20-day moving average ($12.00) standing as the immediate bullish target.
In a similar fashion to corn, so much focus goes to the yield estimates this time of year that the potential for increases to acreage were overlooked leading up to the report. While I believed soybean acreage could be moderately increased, I was personally surprised by the sizeable increases to both corn and soybean area. If it holds, the 1.4-million-acre increase in Wednesday's WASDE will be the largest upward revision from the June acreage survey in the past 32 years. The 86.8 million acres of planted area and subsequent 85.8 million harvested acres combined with a 52.7 bpa yield forecast (down from 53 bpa in July) to increase the U.S. production outlook to 4.519 bb, the largest U.S. crop on record if realized.
USDA did make bullish demand changes as well, increasing old-and new-crop crush demand to partially offset the increased 2026 production outlook, though ending stocks were still increased to 320 mb. Despite this change being bearish on paper, bullish potential remains for this forecast to eventually be lowered depending on how pod-filling weather fares through August, and also how export demand trends -- with USDA leaving their export forecast unchanged and a 9% year-over-year increase despite new-crop sales being more than double the same point in 2025 to end July.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $11.26. Wednesday's futures close and Tuesday's national average soybean basis of 43 cents under the November board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $11.40.
WHEAT:
September Kansas City wheat futures rose 21 1/2 cents on Wednesday, closing at 7.20 3/4. Chicago and Minneapolis futures were also very strong on Wednesday. Wheat futures were set for a bullish session even prior to the release of USDA's reports, with traders likely waiting for this event and eliminating the off chance that USDA found bearish revisions to make to shake off some of the caution that has pressured wheat futures the past three weeks despite the bullish storyline in the E.U. Technically speaking, wheat futures faded slightly from daily highs by the close, remaining below the 20-day moving average ($7.23 3/4) which is the immediate resistance for September KC futures. Once again, the $7.00 mark proves to be support for KC futures with another rally after Tuesday's drop below the mark.
In Wednesday's WASDE, USDA once again cut 2026 wheat production in the U.S., this time by 5 mb. However, this was the only change to U.S. estimates and as a result ending stocks are now forecasted 5 mb lower at 717 mb. The bearish argument could be made that wheat exports are overstated, but USDA may wish to see how the world situation resolves before making this change.
For the world balance sheet, all eyes were on the Black Sea export potential in combination with world demand. USDA did indeed cut Russian and Ukrainian export potential by 2.5 mmt combined. However, this was offset by increased exports for Canada and Kazakhstan and decreased imports and domestic demand for major importing countries. Overall, the changes were lukewarm. On one hand, the cuts to Black Sea exports at this point may be conservative without a resolution to the expanding attacks on ports and shipping lanes, but on the other hand USDA has signaled they see some world demand being eroded by the sharp rise in prices through July in the immediate aftershock of the Black Sea escalation. At this point, Wednesday's WASDE still leaves us with a lot more questions than answers for the time being.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $6.42, while the DTN National HRS Index was $6.16. Wednesday's futures close and Tuesday's national average soybean basis of 57 cents under the September board for HRW, and 69 cents under the December board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $6.64 and $6.29, respectively.
Livestock:
The live cattle complex was lower at Wednesday's noon hour as the market didn't know if the fundamental support it had hoped for would surface or not. There's not been a great test yet in the fed cash cattle market, but the prices the market has seen have been lower. And as one would logically expect, as the live cattle complex trades lower, so did the feeder cattle contracts.
The lean hog complex was trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour, solely on the support of technical traders as pork cutout values were lower and so were cash prices. October lean hogs closed up $0.22 at $83.55, December lean hogs closed up $0.57 at $74.70 and February lean hogs closed up $0.67 at $77.95.